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Opłacalność produkcji jabłek w latach 2018 i 2019

08.12.2020., 11:22h
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Można nawet powiedzieć, że ta hipoteza już znalazła potwierdzenie. Łatwo się o tym przekonać, analizując ostatnie dwa wiersze tabeli 2. Charakteryzują one tendencje cenowe na rynku jabłek we wrześniu i październiku roku 2020, w stosunku do roku 2019. I oto okazuje się, że poziom cen w (najbardziej reprezentatywnym) hurcie pierwotnym, we wrześniu różni się tylko o 11%, zaś w październiku nie różni się wcale. Jeszcze mniejsze różnice obserwujemy w hurcie wtórnym (rynki hurtowe), zaś bardzo podobne odnoszą się do cen skupu jabłek przemysłowych. Przedmiotowa tabela obejmuje 4 lata, można zatem stwierdzić, że sytuacje takie bardzo rzadko mają miejsce.

Interesująca jest także sytuacja, gdy chodzi o poziom zbiorów jabłek w całej UE w latach 2018–2020. Wieloletnie obserwacje tego wskaźnika pozwalają mi stwierdzić, że mamy tu do czynienia z rodzajem odwrotnej proporcjonalności. Jeśli zbiory jabłek w UE wynoszą 9–11 mln ton, to można się spodziewać przyzwoitych cen jabłek nie tylko w Europie, ale i w Polsce. Wyższe zbiory oznaczają zwykle ekonomiczne kłopoty sadowników. Oczywiście, kłopoty są tym większe im wyższe są zbiory. Dobrym tego przykładem był rok 2018. Zbiory w UE wyniosły wtedy ponad 13,2 mln ton, zaś ceny jabłek w Polsce okazały się na tyle niskie, że z punktu widzenia sadownika, ekonomiczna ocena sezonu 2018/2019 musiała być negatywna.

Charakteryzując i analizując wiele sezonów handlowych udało mi się stwierdzić, że jeżeli zbiorom w UE na poziomie 9–11 mln ton towarzyszą krajowe w wysokości około 3 mln ton, to poziom cen pozwala na pozytywną ocenę sezonu z punktu widzenia sadownika. Tak właśnie było w sezonie 2019/2020 (3,08 mln ton). Jeśli natomiast zbiory w Polsce wynoszą 4 mln ton (2018 r.), a w UE przekraczają 13,2 mln ton, to można oczekiwać bardzo trudnego sezonu.

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Z wielu powodów prezentacja danych ekonomicznych dotyczących produkcji jabłek w badanych przeze mnie gospodarstwach w latach 2018 i 2019, nie była wcześniej możliwa. Ale publikacja tych danych obecnie ma jednak swoje zalety. Zakończyły się oto zbiory jabłek w roku 2020. Brak jeszcze ostatecznych szacunków GUS dotyczących zbiorów w Polsce. Wiadomo jednak, że i w tym roku mieliśmy wiosną przymrozki, podobnie jak to było w roku 2019. Można zatem założyć, że poziom zbiorów także będzie podobny. Jeśli tak, to charakterystyka ekonomiczna obu sezonów może mieć także wiele punktów wspólnych.

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Z wielu powodów prezentacja danych ekonomicznych dotyczących produkcji jabłek w badanych przeze mnie gospodarstwach w latach 2018 i 2019, nie była wcześniej możliwa. Ale publikacja tych danych obecnie ma jednak swoje zalety. Zakończyły się oto zbiory jabłek w roku 2020. Brak jeszcze ostatecznych szacunków GUS dotyczących zbiorów w Polsce. Wiadomo jednak, że i w tym roku mieliśmy wiosną przymrozki, podobnie jak to było w roku 2019. Można zatem założyć, że poziom zbiorów także będzie podobny. Jeśli tak, to charakterystyka ekonomiczna obu sezonów może mieć także wiele punktów wspólnych.

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Z wielu powodów prezentacja danych ekonomicznych dotyczących produkcji jabłek w badanych przeze mnie gospodarstwach w latach 2018 i 2019, nie była wcześniej możliwa. Ale publikacja tych danych obecnie ma jednak swoje zalety. Zakończyły się oto zbiory jabłek w roku 2020. Brak jeszcze ostatecznych szacunków GUS dotyczących zbiorów w Polsce. Wiadomo jednak, że i w tym roku mieliśmy wiosną przymrozki, podobnie jak to było w roku 2019. Można zatem założyć, że poziom zbiorów także będzie podobny. Jeśli tak, to charakterystyka ekonomiczna obu sezonów może mieć także wiele punktów wspólnych.

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Można nawet powiedzieć, że ta hipoteza już znalazła potwierdzenie. Łatwo się o tym przekonać, analizując ostatnie dwa wiersze tabeli 2. Charakteryzują one tendencje cenowe na rynku jabłek we wrześniu i październiku roku 2020, w stosunku do roku 2019. I oto okazuje się, że poziom cen w (najbardziej reprezentatywnym) hurcie pierwotnym, we wrześniu różni się tylko o 11%, zaś w październiku nie różni się wcale. Jeszcze mniejsze różnice obserwujemy w hurcie wtórnym (rynki hurtowe), zaś bardzo podobne odnoszą się do cen skupu jabłek przemysłowych. Przedmiotowa tabela obejmuje 4 lata, można zatem stwierdzić, że sytuacje takie bardzo rzadko mają miejsce.

Interesująca jest także sytuacja, gdy chodzi o poziom zbiorów jabłek w całej UE w latach 2018–2020. Wieloletnie obserwacje tego wskaźnika pozwalają mi stwierdzić, że mamy tu do czynienia z rodzajem odwrotnej proporcjonalności. Jeśli zbiory jabłek w UE wynoszą 9–11 mln ton, to można się spodziewać przyzwoitych cen jabłek nie tylko w Europie, ale i w Polsce. Wyższe zbiory oznaczają zwykle ekonomiczne kłopoty sadowników. Oczywiście, kłopoty są tym większe im wyższe są zbiory. Dobrym tego przykładem był rok 2018. Zbiory w UE wyniosły wtedy ponad 13,2 mln ton, zaś ceny jabłek w Polsce okazały się na tyle niskie, że z punktu widzenia sadownika, ekonomiczna ocena sezonu 2018/2019 musiała być negatywna.

Charakteryzując i analizując wiele sezonów handlowych udało mi się stwierdzić, że jeżeli zbiorom w UE na poziomie 9–11 mln ton towarzyszą krajowe w wysokości około 3 mln ton, to poziom cen pozwala na pozytywną ocenę sezonu z punktu widzenia sadownika. Tak właśnie było w sezonie 2019/2020 (3,08 mln ton). Jeśli natomiast zbiory w Polsce wynoszą 4 mln ton (2018 r.), a w UE przekraczają 13,2 mln ton, to można oczekiwać bardzo trudnego sezonu.

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Z wielu powodów prezentacja danych ekonomicznych dotyczących produkcji jabłek w badanych przeze mnie gospodarstwach w latach 2018 i 2019, nie była wcześniej możliwa. Ale publikacja tych danych obecnie ma jednak swoje zalety. Zakończyły się oto zbiory jabłek w roku 2020. Brak jeszcze ostatecznych szacunków GUS dotyczących zbiorów w Polsce. Wiadomo jednak, że i w tym roku mieliśmy wiosną przymrozki, podobnie jak to było w roku 2019. Można zatem założyć, że poziom zbiorów także będzie podobny. Jeśli tak, to charakterystyka ekonomiczna obu sezonów może mieć także wiele punktów wspólnych.

Można nawet powiedzieć, że ta hipoteza już znalazła potwierdzenie. Łatwo się o tym przekonać, analizując ostatnie dwa wiersze tabeli 2. Charakteryzują one tendencje cenowe na rynku jabłek we wrześniu i październiku roku 2020, w stosunku do roku 2019. I oto okazuje się, że poziom cen w (najbardziej reprezentatywnym) hurcie pierwotnym, we wrześniu różni się tylko o 11%, zaś w październiku nie różni się wcale. Jeszcze mniejsze różnice obserwujemy w hurcie wtórnym (rynki hurtowe), zaś bardzo podobne odnoszą się do cen skupu jabłek przemysłowych. Przedmiotowa tabela obejmuje 4 lata, można zatem stwierdzić, że sytuacje takie bardzo rzadko mają miejsce.

Interesująca jest także sytuacja, gdy chodzi o poziom zbiorów jabłek w całej UE w latach 2018–2020. Wieloletnie obserwacje tego wskaźnika pozwalają mi stwierdzić, że mamy tu do czynienia z rodzajem odwrotnej proporcjonalności. Jeśli zbiory jabłek w UE wynoszą 9–11 mln ton, to można się spodziewać przyzwoitych cen jabłek nie tylko w Europie, ale i w Polsce. Wyższe zbiory oznaczają zwykle ekonomiczne kłopoty sadowników. Oczywiście, kłopoty są tym większe im wyższe są zbiory. Dobrym tego przykładem był rok 2018. Zbiory w UE wyniosły wtedy ponad 13,2 mln ton, zaś ceny jabłek w Polsce okazały się na tyle niskie, że z punktu widzenia sadownika, ekonomiczna ocena sezonu 2018/2019 musiała być negatywna.

Charakteryzując i analizując wiele sezonów handlowych udało mi się stwierdzić, że jeżeli zbiorom w UE na poziomie 9–11 mln ton towarzyszą krajowe w wysokości około 3 mln ton, to poziom cen pozwala na pozytywną ocenę sezonu z punktu widzenia sadownika. Tak właśnie było w sezonie 2019/2020 (3,08 mln ton). Jeśli natomiast zbiory w Polsce wynoszą 4 mln ton (2018 r.), a w UE przekraczają 13,2 mln ton, to można oczekiwać bardzo trudnego sezonu.

05. luty 2023 16:47